POLITICAL ANALYSTS PREDICT OUTCOME OF ELECTIONS
By: Khanyisani Dlomo
As voters take to the polls tomorrow, political analysts have made predictions on what each party will receive.
Speaking to JournalismIziko this week, University of Witwatersrand Vice Chancellor, Professor Adam Habib said that the ANC will decline nationally but won’t lose the hotly contested Gauteng province.
“I do not believe that the ANC will get two-thirds majority. I think that it will fall by about 4 or 5 percent. So the ANC’s vote will be in the early 60s,” said Habib.
“I do not believe that the ANC will lose Gauteng. I think that they will easily hold Gauteng. The DA will increase but is unlikely to jump over 30% to win Gauteng. Nationally it (the DA) will be in the lower 20s,” Habib added.
Habib said the emergence of Julius Malema’s Economic Freedom Fighters and Mamphela Ramphele’s AgangSA won’t pose a big threat to the ruling party.
“Nationally the EFF I suspect will get lower than 5 percent, although it is projected to be slightly over. Agang, I suspect will be far smaller.”
Gauteng is said to be a highly contested province but political analyst, Ralph Mathekga, sees the ANC walking away victoriously.
“I do not think the ANC will lose Gauteng. I do not believe EFF or DA will impose a serious threat on ANC in Gauteng. What I think might happen is rather decline of the ANC majority, but not an extent where the party can lose the province,” Mathekga told JournalismIziko this week.
“The emergence of the two new parties certainly increase competition for voters in the opposition camp, it also pose a challenge to the DA, whose growth strategy comes into conflict with the attempt by these new parties
to attain votes,” added Mathekga.
The numbers from previous elections demonstrate that the ANC is gradually declining with 3% per election, including local government elections. Mathekga said that the DA is most likely to retain the Western Cape.
Mathekga also believes that the National Freedom Party – who garnered 1.2 million votes in the local elections – is likely to unseat the IFP to become an official party in KwaZulu-Natal.
“The NFP has a good potential to be an official opposition in KZN, they have been a good challenge to the declining IFP since they entered politics.”